With prediction markets offered through Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), you can buy and sell contracts for the outcome of future events. Buying a contract means you’re predicting the likely outcome of an event.
Each outcome’s price represents how likely it is, as determined by those who have bought contracts for the event. If your prediction is correct, you receive a payout.
Note: Prediction markets are available to U.S. residents only, excluding Nevada. Traveling abroad does not affect access.
Market: A question or event that’s open for predictions.
Outcome: The possible answer to the market’s question (“yes” or “no”). Choosing “Yes” means you believe the event will occur; choosing “No” means you believe it will not.
Contract price: The cost to buy a “yes” or “no”, representing the probability of that outcome. For example, $0.65 means the event has a 65% chance of happening.
Liquidity: How easily you can buy or sell contracts without significantly affecting the market price.
Close: When the event ends and the correct outcome is determined.
Payout: Money earned from correct predictions.
Settlement: When the money you earn from your payout gets deposited into your cash account.
Sell early: Selling a contract before the event closes to lock in gains or cut losses.
Eligible region(s) | • United States |
Trading hours | • Open 24/7, except for 3 AM – 5 AM ET on Thursdays, scheduled maintenance windows, specific market conditions, holidays, or due to regulatory conditions in your region |
Eligible funds | • Prediction markets contracts can only be purchased with USD and USDC • Unrealized gains can't be used to buy new contracts (they’re unsettled) |
Fees | • The order confirmation page displays a fee breakdown before placing an order |
Taxes | • Prediction markets gains may be considered taxable income |