With prediction markets offered through Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), you can buy and sell contracts for the outcome of future events. Buying a contract means you’re predicting the likely outcome of an event.
Each outcome’s price represents how likely it is, as determined by those who have bought contracts for the event. If your prediction is correct, you receive a payout.
Note: Prediction markets are available to U.S. residents only, excluding Nevada. Traveling abroad does not affect access.
Before starting
Eligible region(s): United States.
Trading hours: Open 24/7, except for 3 AM – 5 AM ET on Thursdays, scheduled maintenance windows, specific market conditions, holidays, or due to regulatory conditions in your region.
Eligible funds:
Prediction markets contracts can only be purchased with settled USD and USDC.
You can use funds in your predictions balance to buy new predictions contracts.
Unrealized gains can't be used to buy new contracts (they’re unsettled).
Fees: The order confirmation page displays a fee breakdown before placing an order.
Taxes: Prediction markets gains may be considered taxable income.
How outcomes are determined
Each prediction market has specific rules that define exactly how the outcome is determined. These rules are displayed on the market's detail page before you buy and are part of your contract terms.
Markets are operated by an independent exchange
Prediction markets on Coinbase are operated by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Kalshi determines the final result based on the source of truth specified in each market's contract rules, not the price shown on Coinbase or any third-party app.
Different markets use different settlement sources
The settlement source depends on the type of event:
Market Type | Settlement Source | Example |
|---|---|---|
Crypto prices (BTC, ETH) | CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (BRTI) | 60-second average before expiration |
Sports (NBA, NFL, MLB) | Official league results | Final regulation score |
Weather | National Weather Service (NWS) | Official recorded temperature or conditions |
Political / Elections | Varies. Review the terms for your specific contract | Official certified results |
Economic data | Varies. Review the terms for your specific contract | Official published statistics |
Contract rules define specific terms
Each market's rules include specific definitions that may differ from common assumptions. Examples:
"Second Half": In sports markets, this refers to points scored during the second half of regulation time only. Overtime points do not count.
"Over/Under": In sports markets, this is the count of the exact final number against the specified line. For example, Over 210.5 means 211 or more combined points are required.
Crypto price targets are settled against the BRTI 60-second average, not an instantaneous price. The official settlement value may differ from what you see on Coinbase or other platforms at the time of expiration.
How to review market rules before buying
Select the prediction market you are interested in.
On the market detail page, locate the About or Rules section.
Review the settlement source, timing, and specific conditions.
Select View Full Rules (if available) to see the complete contract terms on the Kalshi website.
Always review the market rules before placing a trade. Understanding exactly how the outcome is determined, including which data source is used and what timing applies, helps you make informed predictions.
Coinbase honors the official resolution determined by Kalshi and cannot manually override outcomes.
Market: A question or event that’s open for predictions.
Outcome: The possible answer to the market’s question (“yes” or “no”). Choosing “Yes” means you believe the event will occur; choosing “No” means you believe it will not.
Contract price: The cost to buy a “yes” or “no”, representing the probability of that outcome. For example, $0.65 means the event has a 65% chance of happening.
Liquidity: How easily you can buy or sell contracts without significantly affecting the market price.
Close: When the event ends and the correct outcome is determined.
Payout: Money earned from correct predictions.
Settlement: When the money you earn from your payout gets deposited into your cash account.
Sell early: Selling a contract before the event closes to lock in gains or cut losses.
Listed futures and swaps are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets ("CFM"), a NFA member firm. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice or recommendation to purchase a particular asset or security or to employ a particular investment strategy. Not available in Nevada.