Note: Prediction markets are available to U.S. residents only, excluding Nevada. Traveling abroad does not affect access.
Where to find your funds
After a market closes (trading ends), the final outcome is determined and payouts are sent.
If you made a correct prediction, it can take up to 48 hours for your winnings to settle and appear in your account. Once settled, they are immediately available for further prediction markets trading in your Prediction Market USD balance.
If you want to withdraw your winnings, they will be automatically transferred from your Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM) Predictions Markets USD balance into your primary account every two hours between 6am - 4pm ET on business days.
There are no automatic payouts on US bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours, or while the independent third-party confirms the result; check the contract details page for status and rules.
Selling your contract
When a contract is sold during auto-transfer hours, the original cost returns to your primary account, while any resulting profit or loss stays in your predictions account. The funds in your predictions account can be used on prediction markets only, until the next auto-transfer to your primary account.
Resolution
Each market includes clear rules explaining how the outcome is determined. Once the event closes, an independent, regulated exchange uses the specified “source of truth”; including, official statistics, certified results, market data, or trusted news outlets, to declare the result. Settlement is based solely on this source, which is listed in the contract details before buying begins.
How settlement prices are determined for crypto price contracts
For prediction markets tied to crypto prices, such as “BTC 15 min” contracts, the outcome is determined using the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (BRTI), an independent, regulated benchmark.
The BRTI does not use a single price snapshot. Instead, it calculates a volume-weighted average of 60 price readings taken during the final minute before the specified settlement time.
Example: For a contract settling at 4:45 PM EDT, the BRTI averages 60 readings taken between 4:44:00 PM and 4:44:59 PM EDT.
The settlement price may differ from prices shown on the Coinbase app, Google, or other general price trackers. These sources show real-time spot prices, which may not match the BRTI average during the exact settlement window.
To verify the official outcome of a specific market, visit the contract details page or the corresponding Kalshi market page.
Check a market timeline
Each prediction market detail page shows the market event’s current status and expected close date.
To check a market timeline:
Sign in to your Coinbase.com account.
Locate the prediction contract of interest and select it.
Go to the Timeline & payout section.
Locate the market close and projected payout date.
Settlement happens when a market closes and the outcome is confirmed.
In prediction markets, the price reflects the odds (e.g., $0.65 ≈ 65% chance according to traders).
Each contract pays $1 (minus fees) if the event occurs and $0 if it does not.
Payout = $1 × number of winning contracts.
Profit = payout − your purchase cost (minus any fees).
Example: You buy 10 “Yes” contracts at $0.40 ($4.00 total). If the event occurs, your payout is $10.00 and your profit is $6.00 (minus fees).