Note: Prediction markets are available to U.S. residents only, excluding Nevada. Traveling abroad does not affect access.
Prediction contract timeline
Each prediction market detail page shows the market event’s current status and expected close date.
To check a market timeline:
Locate the prediction contract of interest and select it.
Go to the Timeline & Payout section.
Review the Market Close and Projected Payout Date.
Selling your contract
Funds automatically transfer between your Prediction Markets account and Coinbase Crypto (Spot) account when you sell a contract.
For a correct prediction:
Trade proceeds remain in your Prediction Markets account until they settle. The balance then automatically transfers to your spot account.
Funds transfer every two hours between 6:00 AM and 4:00 PM ET on business days. Transfers don't occur on weekends or US bank holidays.
Once you receive the funds, you are able to use the proceeds for another derivative transaction prior to the funds settling.
For an incorrect prediction:
The original cost remains in your Prediction Markets account, minus trade losses and fees.
While transfers are pending, funds in your Prediction Markets account can only be used for prediction market activity. Eligible amounts automatically transfer to your primary Coinbase account during the next transfer window.
Settlement happens when a market closes and the outcome is confirmed.
In prediction markets, the price reflects the odds. For example, $0.65 represents an approximately 65% chance according to traders.
Each contract pays $1 (minus fees) if the event occurs and $0 if it does not.
Payout = $1 × number of winning contracts.
Profit = payout − your purchase cost - minus any fees.
Example: You buy 10 “Yes” contracts at $0.40 ($4.00 total). If the event occurs, your payout is $10.00 and your profit is $6.00 (minus fees).
Resolution
Each market includes clear rules explaining how the outcome is determined. Once the event closes, an independent, regulated exchange uses the specified source of truth, including official statistics, certified results, market data, or trusted news outlets, to declare the result.
Settlement is based solely on the source listed in the contract details before buying begins. The contract terms and conditions also include this information.
How settlement prices are determined for crypto price contracts
For prediction markets tied to crypto prices, such as BTC 15 min or ETH 15 min contracts, the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (BRTI) determines the outcome.
The BRTI may not be the same as the price shown on the Coinbase app, Google, CoinMarketCap, or TradingView.
How the BRTI calculates the settlement price
The BRTI doesn't use a single price snapshot. It averages 60 price readings taken every second during the final minute before the specified settlement time.
Example: For a contract settling at 4:45 PM EDT, the BRTI averages 60 readings taken between 4:44:00 PM and 4:44:59 PM EDT. This averaged value is the official settlement price.
Why the Coinbase app price may differ from the settlement price
The Coinbase app and other platforms display real-time spot prices, the last-trade price on a single exchange. The BRTI is a volume-weighted index averaged over 60 seconds across multiple sources.
These two values can differ, especially during periods of rapid price movement. A difference of even a few cents can change whether a contract resolves as Yes or No.
If the Coinbase app showed a price that met your target at or around the settlement time, but your contract resolved against you, it is likely because the official 60-second BRTI average differed from the instantaneous spot price you observed.
How to verify the official outcome
Open the Contract Details page for your prediction in the Coinbase app.
Select the link to the corresponding market on the Kalshi website.
On Kalshi, select Market Rules to view the official settlement average and outcome.
CF Benchmarks data is available through an authenticated application programming interface (API) and is publicly viewable in real time. Use the Kalshi market page to verify the official settlement result for a specific contract.
When you receive your payout
After a market closes and the outcome is confirmed, your earnings are immediately available for further prediction markets trading in your Prediction Market USD balance.
Earnings automatically transfer to your primary Coinbase account on a set schedule for cashing out or other trading.
Sweep schedule
Window | Schedule |
|---|---|
Business days (Monday–Friday) | Every 2 hours between 6:00 AM – 4:00 PM ET |
Weekends | No transfers. Funds remain in your Prediction Market balance. |
US bank holidays | No transfers. Funds remain in your Prediction Market balance. |
After 4:00 PM ET | No sweeps until the next business day at 6:00 AM ET |
Example: If your prediction settles on Saturday evening, your payout is available for new prediction trades immediately. The automatic transfer to your primary Coinbase account begins on Monday at 6:00 AM ET, provided Monday is not a US bank holiday.
Settlement timeline
Event resolves: The independent exchange determines the outcome using the specified source of truth.
Payout credited: Winnings are credited to your Prediction Market USD balance.
Transfer to primary account: Funds transfer to your primary USD balance during the next available transfer window from 6:00 AM to 4:00 PM ET on business days.
Why your balance may appear lower than expected
Your Prediction Market balance may appear lower than your expected payout for several reasons:
Immediately reinvested winnings: New prediction trades draw from the available balance before the next transfer. Check your open positions to confirm whether funds were used for new contracts.
Trading fees: Each trade includes fees that reduce the net payout.
Multiple trades in a session: Fees and small losses can accumulate when buying and selling across multiple markets.
How to verify your payouts
Your daily statement is the official record of all settled payouts.
Go to the
Select the statement for the settlement date (the date the event closed).
Under The Following Event Contracts Settled Today, find the payout entry. A credit (CR) entry indicates funds credited to the account.
Transaction history in the app may briefly lag the daily statement during high-volume settlement periods. If there's a discrepancy, the daily statement reflects the settled amount.